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Iraq’s Domestic, Regional Challenges Increase for 2016
...aq’s Sunni Arab region. Turkey’s most important proxy was the Nineveh-based faction led by Usama al-Nujaifi (parliamentary speaker 2010-2014 and vice-president 2014- August 2015) and his brother Uthil al-Nujaifi (Ninawa governor 2009-May 2015). Despite the former governor’s removal by parliament – in...
Volume: 58Issue: 52Published at Wed, 23 Dec 2015 -
The MENA Region’s Vulnerability: A Geo-Economic Outlook
...jority of countries worldwide continue to struggle with the consequences of 2008. Concurrently, the interaction of global oil supply and demand produced a continuous rise in the price of oil from less than $40/B in 2009 to a peak of $112/B in June 2014, before falling by the end of 2014 to $60/B. Co...
Volume: 58Issue: 52Published at Wed, 23 Dec 2015 -
Libya: No More Than A Glimmer Of Hope
...rward in the post-Qadhafi era. In all other respects, though, the situation in the country has either deteriorated, or at best failed to improve. In December 2014, force majeure was declared at two of the country’s main oil export terminals – Es Sider and Ras Lanuf. Both remain shut-in. In the first qu...
Volume: 58Issue: 52Published at Wed, 23 Dec 2015 -
Libya: Fragile Peace Leaves Many Questions Unanswered
...jected by the HOR. The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, says that majorities in both the HOR and the GNC are ready to sign the agreement. But since it began mediating negotiations in September 2014, the UN has found it impossible to please both sides, and it is unlikely that this has changed. Th...
Volume: 58Issue: 51Published at Fri, 18 Dec 2015 -
South Sudan Oil Output Hike Remains A Distant Prospect
...the conflict. The IMF’s December 2014 Article IV Consultation put oil revenue at 95% of government revenue and around 50% of total GDP in the previous year. PRODUCTION RISES ALWAYS JUST ROUND THE CORNER For more than a year, the government has adhered to a narrative in which an up...
Volume: 58Issue: 50Published at Fri, 11 Dec 2015 -
Russian Allegations Bring Renewed Focus On Islamic State Oil Smuggling
...arterly statements.” ILLICIT OIL AND GAS SALES The United States Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said at the Atlantic Council Energy and Economic Summit on 20 November that the group receives around $1mn a day from illicit oil and gas sales, down from around $2mn a day in 2014. Ms Ou...
Volume: 58Issue: 50Published at Fri, 11 Dec 2015 -
No Quick Fix To Turkey’s Energy Security Concerns
...The rapid deterioration in Russia-Turkey relations since Ankara’s 24 November downing of a Russian fighter jet on the Syrian border highlights the importance of energy security for Ankara. Russian volumes of 27.33 bcm accounted for more than half of Turkey’s gas imports in 2014 and the ab...
Volume: 58Issue: 50Published at Fri, 11 Dec 2015 -
Iraq: Abadi Faces New Crisis As Anti-Turkey Protest Looms
...rrorism in a November 2014 press conference he held in Baghdad with Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu. Mr Abadi’s refusal over the course of this year to arm, or in any way, support Mr Nujaifi’s camps in Kurdish-controlled northern Nineveh suggests that he never endorsed Turkey’s intervention in the form it has ta...
Volume: 58Issue: 50Published at Fri, 11 Dec 2015 -
Paris Climate Talks: How To Measure Success?
...e globe. Market-related mechanisms would give visibility to investors and private businesses, but there remain strong disparities partly due to fossil fuel subsidies. The IEA estimates global fossil fuels subsidies at around $490bn in 2014, five times the amount that would need to be raised to ad...
Volume: 58Issue: 49Published at Fri, 04 Dec 2015 -
Israel Reaches Final Hurdle Before Gas Outline Implementation
...high gas prices. The current stasis was caused when former antitrust commissioner David Gilo ruled that Noble and Delek were operating as a cartel offshore Israel in December last year (MEES, 2 January). This reversed a March 2014 ruling that Noble and Delek would sell off their Karish and Ta...
Volume: 58Issue: 47Published at Fri, 20 Nov 2015 -
Israel Looks To Drum Up Major Interest In Gas Riches
...rrently producing field, as well as Leviathan, had come to an agreement with the antitrust authority (ATA) in March last year to sell off two of its smaller fields, Karish and Tanin, in order to receive consent to develop Leviathan (MEES, 2 May 2014). Problems came to a head in December when ATA co...
Volume: 58Issue: 46Published at Fri, 13 Nov 2015 -
Egypt To Develop 250MW Wind Farm
...oject developers in the wake of a development conference in March, aimed at attracting foreign investment in new electricity capacity in a bid to prevent a repeat of last year’s frequent blackouts. Egyptian generating capacity was 31.45GW at the end of 2014, but the Ministry of Electricity and En...
Volume: 58Issue: 46Published at Fri, 13 Nov 2015 -
Militia Shuts Key Libyan Terminal, Deepening Rift Between Rival Regimes
...0,000 b/d. Output is well down on early 2015 when it reached about 550,000 b/d (MEES, 3 April), and is significantly less than in October 2014, when production was 860,000 b/d. ZUEITINA SHUT DOWN Local forces around the Zueitina terminal forced Tripoli-based NOC to declare force majeure at...
Volume: 58Issue: 45Published at Fri, 06 Nov 2015 -
Chevron Optimistic On Neutral Zone, But Not Till 2017
...oduction elsewhere to fully makeup for the PNZ outages (see graphs). As well as the Wafra shut-in, offshore production in the PNZ was halted in October 2014, denying the neighbouring states a combined production capacity of 500,000 b/d. Combined with the fall in oil prices since the second half of mi...
Volume: 58Issue: 45Published at Fri, 06 Nov 2015 -
Iraq Progresses With Giant Gas-Fired Plant, But Where’s The Fuel?
...r the current shortfall of available gas, Iraq is instead burning liquids to minimize power blackouts, including direct burn crude which averaged 223,000 b/d in July and August, a substantial hike over the average 136,000 b/d burned in 2014. Iraqi Minister of Electricity Qasim al-Fahwadi told pa...
Volume: 58Issue: 42Published at Fri, 16 Oct 2015 -
Iraq Attempts Fiscal Correction Amid Political Vacuum
...d “$15bn in payments owed to oil companies” due to “waste of the country’s wealth as a result of flawed policies of the former government through gifts from the necessary leader, especially during campaign seasons.” For context, Iraq had about $3bn in hand when Mr ‘Abadi took office in September 2014, al...
Volume: 58Issue: 41Published at Fri, 09 Oct 2015 -
Iraqi Political Scene In Tumult Over Regional Intrigues
...tonomy, a hardening which overshadows the current oil export conflict. In December 2014, Baghdad and the KRG negotiated an oil export agreement which had the potential to lead to an end to years of wrangling over Kurdish oil exports which has been harmful to both sides. The initial agreement, passed by th...
Volume: 58Issue: 39Published at Fri, 25 Sep 2015 -
Moody’s Assigns Poor Rating For Iraq Bond
...ile the non-oil sector is dominated by the public sector. Manufacturing and construction together accounted for only 10% of GDP in 2014, and services had a share of 37%. More than one-third of this originated from general government services. Iraq also has very weak institutional strength. This is re...
Volume: 58Issue: 39Published at Fri, 25 Sep 2015 -
North Africa Security Special Report: Too Late To Roll Back Islamic State?
...ficials, it was the only country in the Middle East and North Africa region not to suffer from terrorism in 2014. The most recent major attack in the kingdom was in April 2011, when 17 people were killed and 25 injured in an explosion at a restaurant on Djema el-Fna, the main square in Morocco’s tourist hu...
Volume: 58Issue: 38Published at Fri, 18 Sep 2015 -
Cairo Reshuffle Sees Oil Minister Appointed PM
...64% from E£1.1 ($0.15)/liter. Higher grade 90 Octane gasoline was raised by 41% (MEES, 11 July 2014). This has resulted in spending on oil product subsidies halving to $10.8bn or 9.5% of total spending for the 2014-15 financial year. For the current year it is budgeted to fall further to just 7% of...
Volume: 58Issue: 38Published at Fri, 18 Sep 2015