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Saudi Arabia Boosts Products Exports To Minimise Impact Of Crude Cuts
...Saudi Arabia is set to cut production by 500,000 b/d from October levels in January under the recent Opec/non-Opec output deal. Crude and refined product exports are both on track for record annual highs in 2016, but lower production will mean one, or both, will have to fall in 2017. But hy...
Volume: 59Issue: 51/52Published at Fri, 23 Dec 2016 -
Non-Opec Production Agreement Raises As Many Questions As Answers
...The 10 December finalization of an agreement between key non-Opec producers and Opec to cut production by almost 1.8mn b/d is set to hasten the market’s rebalancing, the IEA and Opec both agree. Both have also revised upwards their forecasts for global demand in 2017 in their monthly oil ma...
Volume: 59Issue: 50Published at Fri, 16 Dec 2016 -
Opec Hits New Record Output as Attention Switches to Non-Opec
...d preliminary data indicates November output including NGLs reached 12.3mn b/d (see p6). Brazil is also set to ramp up production further and hit a quarterly record of 2.63mn b/d in Q3, although output slipped slightly in October. The IEA projects liquids output growth to continue in 2017, ri...
Volume: 59Issue: 49Published at Fri, 09 Dec 2016 -
Opec Agrees To Cut, But Questions Remain Over Implementation
...tential 1.8mn b/d cut – with the ‘non-Opec’ portion slated to be finalized at a 9 December meeting – is due to come into force on 1 January 2017, but is far from a done deal, and implementation will likely be problematic. The meeting is tentatively slated for Doha, but this has yet to be finalized. Th...
Volume: 59Issue: 48Published at Fri, 02 Dec 2016 -
Opec Shows No Sign of Cutting Ahead of November Meeting
...vember highlights the extent of the problem. If Opec output continues at current levels then, according to IEA demand projections, the market will only balance in Q4 2017. According to Opec’s projections any rebalance will have to wait till 2018 (see table). The IEA report raises expected 2017 non-Opec pr...
Volume: 59Issue: 45Published at Fri, 11 Nov 2016 -
Opec Cut Plans: Will They Happen? Will They Work?
...ices what will be the reaction from the shale oil production and how will that once again affect the market?” Without any Opec action, the IEA expects the market to rebalance in the second half of 2017 Mr Birol says. This is backed up by data from its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), re...
Volume: 59Issue: 41Published at Fri, 14 Oct 2016 -
OPEC Agrees To Cut, Now The Hard Work Starts
...rst is now behind it, with the futures curve indicating a less painful 2017, with earnings rising back above the $500bn mark to within touching distance of last year’s figure (see table). As the largest producer, Saudi Arabia’s earnings have fallen the most, by an estimated $130bn this year alone, bu...
Volume: 59Issue: 39Published at Fri, 30 Sep 2016 -
Aramco Output Policy Under Scrutiny Ahead Of Algiers
...ter both the IEA and Opec have released more pessimistic market outlooks. The IEA now sees supply exceeding demand in every quarter of 2017, while Opec sees a large supply surplus for 2017 as a whole. Even if the gains to Opec output that the IEA has factored in to its forecasts fail to materialize, su...
Volume: 59Issue: 38Published at Fri, 23 Sep 2016 -
Surplus To 2018 Leaves Opec No Good Options
...2017 drawdowns and a deficit for the year as a whole. Opec’s latest monthly oil report, also released this week, and last week’s from the US’ EIA are marginally less bearish, though even they project a large surplus of supply over demand for 2017 as a whole. All three have markedly revised up...
Volume: 59Issue: 37Published at Fri, 16 Sep 2016 -
US Output: Is The Bottom Near?
...• The US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised down its expectations for the fall in crude output in both 2016 and 2017. It now forecasts 2016 output of 8.77mn b/d, down 650,000 b/d on 2015’s record 9.42mn b/d. For 2017 it forecasts 8.51mn b/d, down a further 26...
Volume: 59Issue: 36Published at Fri, 09 Sep 2016 -
Oil Market Bulls & Bears In Pre-Algiers Stand-Off
...ec figures. Most analysts now see the global surplus of supply over demand continuing well into 2017. And of course inventories are already at record levels. Having fallen by 20mn barrels from May’s record of 540mn bl, US crude stocks unexpectedly rose again last week to stand at 524mn barrels on 19 Au...
Volume: 59Issue: 34Published at Fri, 26 Aug 2016 -
US Data: Reading The Runes
...ilst output from US shale formations is still falling, September’s projected fall of 85,000 b/d (to 4.47mn b/d) is the lowest this year. Meanwhile, the EIA’s forecasts for 2016 and 2017 in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook are up by 120,000 b/d and 110,000 b/d on those made the previous month (see ch...
Volume: 59Issue: 34Published at Fri, 26 Aug 2016 -
Temporary Oil Market Balancing Offset by Record Stocks
...mporary. Not just is supply set to overtake demand again in Q4 as refinery maintenance steps up, but the IEA has revised down its expected demand growth rate for 2017 on the back of weakening global economic growth forecasts. The IEA’s July Oil Market Report (OMR) expects demand growth of 1.42mn b/d this ye...
Volume: 59Issue: 32Published at Fri, 12 Aug 2016 -
Opec Winning Back Market Share in Key Asian Markets
...recasts by 100,000 b/d for 2016 due to unexpected European resilience in its latest Oil Market Report, published 13 July, it still sees Asia as the key driver of global demand growth, up 900,000 b/d in 2016 and 840,000 b/d in 2017. In particular, it sees India and China driving growth in 2017, at 28...
Volume: 59Issue: 30Published at Fri, 29 Jul 2016 -
Record Stocks Cast Shadow Over Market Rebalance
...0). OPEC'S SHARE OF WORLD OIL* OUTPUT SET TO HIT 42% BY LATE 2017-IEA *CRUDE + NGLS. FORECASTS FROM 3Q16 ('CALL ON OPEC' FOR OPEC CRUDE). SOURCE: IEA JULY 2016 OMR. IEA SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECASTS, JULY 2016 (MN B/D) OPEC SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECASTS, JULY 2016 (MN...
Volume: 59Issue: 28Published at Fri, 15 Jul 2016 -
Will Venezuela Join Libya & Nigeria In OPEC's ‘Long-Term Outage’ Club?
...rk “would probably need [prices] to be about $10/B higher for some period of time.” “Our view, at this point in time, is that this probably is a 2017 event,” he adds. A major boost to US crude output is not only dependent on oil prices reaching and possibly surpassing $60/B. Activity could be co...
Volume: 59Issue: 25Published at Fri, 24 Jun 2016 -
IEA: Oil Market To Rebalance In Second Half Of 2016, But Only Temporarily
...ain in the first half of 2017. Its latest monthly Oil Market Report, released 14 June, the IEA raises its 2016 global demand growth estimate from 1.22mn b/d to 1.33mn b/d largely due to a 172,000 b/d upward revision to demand in the first half of the year. Opec’s decision (or non-decision) earlier th...
Volume: 59Issue: 24Published at Fri, 17 Jun 2016 -
OPEC May Production Drops Despite Saudi And Iran Increases
...8.6mn b/d for 2016 and 8.2mn b/d for 2017. Meanwhile, in an indication that the global crude overhang is beginning to tighten amid falling non-Opec output in not only the US but in countries as diverse as Mexico and Ghana, US commercial crude stocks fell by 8mn barrels in May from April’s 54...
Volume: 59Issue: 23Published at Fri, 10 Jun 2016 -
Opec: Fit For Purpose? What Purpose Is That Exactly?
...vernment’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) is now forecasting 2016 crude output of 8.60mn, down from 2015’s record 9.43mn b/d, with a further 400,000 b/d fall forecast for 2017. But of course, as the Saudis and other Gulf producers are acutely aware, these forecasts are highly sensitive to prices. Th...
Volume: 59Issue: 22Published at Fri, 03 Jun 2016 -
Latest Us Output Figures And Projections
...CRUDE OUTPUT THIS YEAR... EIA 2017V16 AND 2016V15 FORECASTS BY DATE OF FORECAST. ...BUT WITH A 150,000 B/D UPWARD REVISION TO ITS 2017 FORECAST THE END MIGHT BE IN SIGHT EIA 2017V16 AND 2016V15 FORECASTS BY DATE OF FORECAST....
Volume: 59Issue: 22Published at Fri, 03 Jun 2016