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Can Opec+ Really Unwind Its Cuts Fully In 2022?
...January 2022 will mark the five-year anniversary of the implementation of Opec+ output cuts. This deal, which came into force back in January 2017, saw the newly-formed alliance agree to cut for a six-month period that could be extended for another six-months (MEES, 2 December 2016). Nearly fi...
Volume: 64Issue: 39Published at Fri, 01 Oct 2021 -
US Shale Output Tops 8mn b/d, Are The Gains Sustainable?
...d of this month. The last time the Permian DUC count was at 2,000 was in December 2017 when Permian output was just 2.88mn b/d, almost 2mn b/d below current levels. Clearly there is a limit to how long this DUC drawdown can continue. Well drilling and completion (fracking) are carried out by se...
Volume: 64Issue: 37Published at Fri, 17 Sep 2021 -
India LNG Imports: Q2 Sees Record Volumes For UAE, Egypt & USA As Qatar Keeps Top Spot
...16 when the emirate regularly had an 80% market share is long gone. Qatar’ Q2 market share of 33.8% was the lowest on record (see chart 2). India was Qatar’s top LNG market for 2020, with 10mn tons versus 9.1mn tons for number two South Korea (MEES, 5 March). But Korea, which was number one for 2017...
Volume: 64Issue: 36Published at Fri, 10 Sep 2021 -
Saudi 1h 2021 Oil Dynamics: Refining Prioritized Over Crude Exports
...ude oil being burned in power plants. Crude burn always rises seasonally, but June’s 586,000 b/d was up more than 100,000 b/d year-on-year, and was the highest June figure since 2017 (see chart 3). While the tapering of production cuts ought to have boosted associated gas production, the impact on cr...
Volume: 64Issue: 33Published at Fri, 20 Aug 2021 -
Japan Crude Imports: Q2 Sees Record Murban Buying
...ngdom on pace to beat the annual record of 40.1% set in 2017. *Japan is under renewed Covid restrictions with cases at their highest level since the start of the pandemic. With the country’s oil imports already on a long-term downward trend, this year is on track to see the lowest imports si...
Volume: 64Issue: 31Published at Fri, 06 Aug 2021 -
Thailand Crude Imports: UAE Dominant, Mideast Share Squeezed
...*Key southeast Asian crude importer Thailand saw volumes slump 7% year-on-year to 988,000 b/d for 1H 2021, the first sub-1mn b/d first half figure since 2017. *Thailand has seen far fewer Covid-19 deaths than most countries in Europe or the Americas but is currently seeing the hi...
Volume: 64Issue: 30Published at Fri, 30 Jul 2021 -
Thailand LNG: Record Imports, Qatar Dominant
...ar figure of 1.59mn tons, up 72% year-on-year. Qatar’s 1H 2021 market share of 49.8% is the highest on a half-year basis since 2017, with the share hitting 51.4% for Q2 as Qatar supplied a quarterly record 1.04mn tons. *Nigeria and Malaysia were second and third respectively for 1H 2021, wi...
Volume: 64Issue: 30Published at Fri, 30 Jul 2021 -
GCC Rig Count Stuck At 10-Year Low Levels For 1H 2021
...e first half of the last decade Kuwait consistently had a higher rig count than the UAE. For 2017 and 1H 2018 the two were neck and neck. But the UAE has been more than 10 ahead for every quarter since Q4 2018, save Q2 and Q3 2020 when the UAE was more dynamic than Kuwait in cutting rigs and the gap fe...
Volume: 64Issue: 27Published at Fri, 09 Jul 2021 -
IEA Calls On Opec+ To Open The Taps In 2022
...tention turns to ending the production cuts. If they are unwound entirely then the market will be oversupplied, but with Opec+ having had some form of cuts in place for most of the period since January 2017, “cuts fatigue” will play a major role. 1: WHICH OPEC MEMBERS HAVE THE CAPACITY TO REGAIN BA...
Volume: 64Issue: 24Published at Fri, 18 Jun 2021 -
Japan LNG Imports At 3-Year High As East Asia Sees Record Q1
...88mn tons, the highest quarterly figure since 1Q 2017. Number four was the USA with a record 2.72mn tons (see table). *The bumper Q1 Japan volumes coming on top of quarterly records from China (MEES, 23 April) and South Korea (MEES, 16 April) mean that overall East Asian imports were up 15% ye...
Volume: 64Issue: 18Published at Fri, 07 May 2021 -
IEA Shoots Down Speculation Of Emerging Super-Cycle As Oil Price Rally Stalls
...int. From 32.08mn b/d in 2017, the Call on Opec fell to just 28.7mn b/d in 2019. Even by the end of its outlook horizon in 2026 the IEA reckons the ‘call on Opec’ will only have recovered to 30.8mn b/d, still more than 1mn b/d below 2017 levels. OPEC DIVERGENCE: MIND THE GAP While th...
Volume: 64Issue: 11Published at Fri, 19 Mar 2021 -
Turkey Crude Imports: Iraq Soars Past Russia For 2020 Top Spot
...*Iraq was way out in front as top crude supplier to key Mediterranean importer Turkey for 2020. The 236,000 b/d Turkey took from Iraq was not only a record and up 24% on 2019, but the highest volume that Turkey has taken from any single supplier ever – beating 229,000 b/d from Iran in 2017 (se...
Volume: 64Issue: 10Published at Fri, 12 Mar 2021 -
LNG Trade: China Set To Overtake Japan As Top Importer
...rket share is down from the record 46.1% hit the previous year. Qatar remains a clear number two in the Chinese market, but a distant one, with 2020 supplies of 8.2mn tons less than a third of Aussie volumes. Having overtaken Japan in 2017, South Korea was Qatar’s top export market in 2018 and 20...
Volume: 64Issue: 05Published at Fri, 05 Feb 2021 -
Thailand Crude Imports: Mideast Share Falls To Record Low
...the UAE in 2017 when Saudi notched up a record 259,000 b/d, Saudi volumes have since slipped back: 2020’s 195,000 b/d was a six-year low. *The USA was number three with volumes rising 12,000 b/d to a record 98,000 b/d for 2020. *Gaining market share at the Gulf’s expense have be...
Volume: 64Issue: 04Published at Fri, 29 Jan 2021 -
IEA Slashes Demand Outlook Amid Tighter Global Restrictions
...oduction. Again, these downgrades have been frontloaded (see chart 3). DEMAND FOR OPEC CRUDE The IEA sees the Call on Opec averaging 27.70mn b/d for 2021, up 4.8mn b/d on the 2020 level. As recently as 2017 it was 32mn b/d. And while the call doesn’t equate to actual demand for Opec cr...
Volume: 64Issue: 03Published at Fri, 22 Jan 2021 -
Korea, Taiwan 2020 Crude Imports: Volumes Down, Mideast Down Further
...nual figure since 2011, with Q3’s 284,000 b/d the lowest quarterly figure since 2010. Number three Iraq saw volumes fall 34% to a six-year low 220,000 b/d, whilst number four the UAE saw a 15% fall to 206,000 b/d. *As recently as 2017, Iran was Korea’s number three supplier (behind Kuwait). Bu...
Volume: 64Issue: 02Published at Fri, 15 Jan 2021 -
Saudi Surprises Market With 1mn B/D Production Cut
...nter months. But such leniency was not afforded to Gulf producers such as Iraq and the UAE in the summer when their domestic demand peaked. Russia’s compliance ever since the initial start of Opec+ cuts in January 2017 has been patchy at best, but it is typically afforded a free pass so long as co...
Volume: 64Issue: 01Published at Fri, 08 Jan 2021